![]() ![]() This will take a lot of froth out of the market, and bring significantly lower prices, as the situation will then ease every year. If Europe can do what is needed to reduce demand, it will have proven both that it is more resilient than thought, and that it can live without Russian gas. The hardest adjustment will be in the coming six months. As a result, we should not expect a significant drop in customer demand unless there are widespread public awareness campaigns on ways to save energy, such as lowering our thermostats. In order to avoid social unrest, governments in the EU and UK have chosen to shield consumers from most of the increase in wholesale natural gas prices. ![]() On the IEA figures, a 3C drop in average thermostat levels would cut that by 21bn cubic metres. Without any further demand reduction, a deficit is expected for the EU+ group of 28bn cubic metres in 2023 - with Russian supply down 103bn cubic metres, LNG imports up 50bn cubic metres and industrial switching of 30bn cubic metres to oil. Additional wind and solar power capacity is expected to help displace 3bn cubic metres a year of natural gas, with the potential to expand more.īut this is still not enough to avoid natural gas shortages going forward. The industrial sector in the EU+ group has already switched 35 per cent of its natural gas consumption to oil. Industrial switching has also been way above most analysts’ expectations. From 2023 onwards, we can safely assume that the countries will further import between 30 and 50 per cent of global LNG production additions. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.įor 2022, the EU+ is expected to import 41bn cubic metres more LNG from elsewhere than in 2021, covering 67 per cent of the expected drop in Russian imports. You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. How uncomfortable would a 3C lowering of indoor temperature be? It would only involve reducing current temperatures of 22C to levels already experienced in recent history. ![]() And if accompanied by a 5 per cent cut in power usage - which could be achieved by switching it off in unused rooms and buildings - the deficit would disappear. Rising imports of liquefied natural gas and a switch by industry to using more oil have reduced much of the 2023 deficit caused by the loss of Russian imports.Ī reduction to an average of 19C would solve two-thirds of the remaining deficit for these nine countries. In 2021, this EU+ group represented 69 per cent of EU and UK demand. The International Energy Agency estimated in a March report that a 1C move lower in average thermostat levels from 22C in the winter would save 10bn cubic metres of gas in EU and UK demand.īut let’s look at the impact of a 3C reduction by focusing on a group of nine European countries for which data are the most detailed: Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. If Europeans just lower thermostats in their homes by an average of 3C - down to 19C this winter - that could make a big difference. Much of European gas demand comes from heating. ![]()
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